Statistics for Reading the News
Read any news story with numbers in it and tell in minutes whether the claim actually holds up.
This course is for members
$9 unlocks every course in the library, this one included, plus a credit to build a topic of your own and at least 10 new courses every month.
What you will learn about Statistics for Reading the News
The 7-day sprint
- Compared to What. A raw number means nothing until you know the denominator and the baseline it should be compared against.
- Who Was Actually Asked. A survey result describes the people who answered it, and only reaches beyond them if the sample was drawn to represent a defined population.
- Margin of Error and Noise. Random sampling produces a range, not a point, and differences smaller than that range are usually not differences at all.
- Average, Median, and the Shape Behind Them. The mean and the median answer different questions, and when they diverge the distribution is skewed and the typical case is not the average case.
- Relative Risk Versus Absolute Risk. A percentage change in risk is meaningless until you know the risk it started from.
- Correlation, Causation, and the Third Thing. An association between two variables can come from cause, reverse cause, a confounder, or selection, and only good study design can distinguish them.
- Significance, Effect Size, and Charts. Statistical significance says a result is unlikely under chance alone, not that it is large, important, or true, and the chart drawn from it can distort all three.
The 80/20: the 7 concepts that matter most
- Denominators and base rates
- Relative versus absolute change
- Who was sampled, and who answered
- Averages hide distributions
- Correlation, confounding, and reverse causation
- Uncertainty: margins of error and confidence intervals
- Significance, effect size, and how charts lie
The core idea, explained like you are 5
Every statistic is a comparison in disguise: a number that has been squeezed out of a much bigger pile of information, and it only means something once you know what pile it came from and what it is being compared against.
Then the quiz and the ladder
10 questions that correct you when you are wrong, and beginner, intermediate, advanced levels, each with a practical exercise.