Understanding Climate Change Science
Read the physics, the data and the IPCC's own language well enough to judge any climate claim you meet.
This course is for members
$9 unlocks every course in the library, this one included, plus a credit to build a topic of your own and at least 10 new courses every month.
What you will learn about Understanding Climate Change Science
The 7-day sprint
- Earth Runs An Energy Budget. Earth warms when it absorbs more energy from the sun than it radiates back to space, so climate change is first and last an accounting problem about energy.
- Greenhouse Gases And Radiative Forcing. Greenhouse gases absorb and re-emit infrared radiation, and the size of their effect on the energy budget is quantified as radiative forcing in
W m-2. - Reading The Keeling Curve. The atmospheric carbon dioxide record is a direct, continuously calibrated measurement with a seasonal wiggle riding on a relentless upward trend.
- Anomalies, Baselines And The Temperature Record. Global temperature is reported as an anomaly relative to a stated baseline period, so a number without its baseline is meaningless.
- Where The Heat Actually Goes. More than ninety percent of the excess heat ends up in the ocean, which is why surface temperature alone is a noisy and lagging indicator of the energy imbalance.
- Feedbacks And Climate Sensitivity. Feedbacks amplify the initial forcing, and their net strength is summarized by two numbers: equilibrium climate sensitivity for the long run and transient climate response for this century.
- Scenarios, Budgets And Calibrated Language. IPCC projections are conditional explorations of possible futures written in a calibrated vocabulary, so reading them correctly means reading the scenario and the probability word together.
The 80/20: the 6 concepts that matter most
- The Earth Energy Imbalance
- Carbon Dioxide As The Control Knob
- Radiative Forcing As A Common Currency
- Feedbacks And Climate Sensitivity
- Anomalies, Baselines And Convergent Datasets
- Reading Scenarios And Calibrated Language
The core idea, explained like you are 5
Earth stays at a steady temperature only when it radiates away as much energy as it receives from the sun, and greenhouse gases slow the outgoing side, so energy builds up until the planet is warm enough to balance the books again.
Then the quiz and the ladder
10 questions that correct you when you are wrong, and beginner, intermediate, advanced levels, each with a practical exercise.
Created Sep 13, 2026. No mistakes have been reported by learners.
Written from these sources
- Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers, ipcc.ch. day 7 headline statements A.1, B.1 and B.2.
- IPCC AR6 Working Group 1: Summary for Policymakers | Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, ipcc.ch. climate sensitivity, radiative forcing, day 6 and pareto.
- Summary for Policymakers, ipcc.ch. scenarios are not predictions, overshoot definitions, day 7.
- IPCC-AR6-Synthesis-Report-PAM.pdf, pam.int. carbon budget definition used in day 7.
- State of the Climate Update for COP30, wmo.int. day 5 sea ice, ocean heat, sea level trend.
- WMO State of the Global Climate 2025 report | UN-Water, unwater.org. energy imbalance indicator, 90 percent ocean heat, sea level.
- state of the global climate 2025, wmo.int. 2025 anomaly with uncertainty and 1850 to 1900 baseline.
- UN Geneva - Multimedia Newsroom : WMO Press conference: State of the Global Climate 2025 report, unognewsroom.org. day 1 energy balance quote and gas concentration records.
- UN Geneva - Multimedia Newsroom : WMO Presser: State of Global Climate 2025 Update, unognewsroom.org. provisional 2025 ranking discussed in day 4.
- Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, gml.noaa.gov. AGGI definition and 1990 indexing for day 2.
- News - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, gml.noaa.gov. 54 percent figure and gas contribution shares.
- NOAA index tracks how greenhouse gas pollution amplified global warming in 2022 - NOAA Research, research.noaa.gov. AGGI 1.49 for 2022 in the day 2 series.
- Annual Greenhouse Gas Index | GlobalChange.gov, globalchange.gov. radiative forcing glossary wording in day 2.
- NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory Publications, gml.noaa.gov. origin of AGGI and major gas forcing share.
- The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), gml.noaa.gov. AGGI 1.23 in 2006 and Montreal Protocol tempering.
- secasc.ncsu.edu, secasc.ncsu.edu. observing network detail and AGGI 1.43 in 2018.
- Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), data.giss.nasa.gov. day 4 GISTEMP v4 inputs and update schedule.
- Record Temperature Years: 2025, 2024, and 2023, svs.gsfc.nasa.gov. three warmest years and baseline pitfall in day 4.
- Global surface temperature data: GISTEMP: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis | Climate Data Guide, climatedataguide.ucar.edu. anomalies, 1200 km infilling, uncertainty ensemble.
- NASA Releases Global Temperature Data - SPACE & DEFENSE, spaceanddefense.io. independent analyses converging, day 4 and pareto.
- Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2025, svs.gsfc.nasa.gov. open code and data point in day 4.
- Annual Carbon Dioxide Peak Passes Another Milestone | Scripps Institution of Oceanography, scripps.ucsd.edu. day 3 May 2025 peak above 430 ppm and Keeling history.
- Trends in CO2 - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, gml.noaa.gov. background-air filtering and parallel NOAA record.
- Mauna Loa Observatory - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, gml.noaa.gov. 1959 annual mean and seasonal cycle fitting.
- Mauna Loa carbon dioxide forecast for 2025 - Met Office, metoffice.gov.uk. 2025 CO2 forecast and ENSO effect on sinks.
- Keeling Curve | Definition, History, & Facts | Britannica, britannica.com. day 3 concentration values for 2000 and 2024.
- WMO GREENHOUSE GAS BULLETIN WEATHER CLIMATE WATER, wmo.int. WMO global means differ slightly from other centers.